Coverage
For latest research, ratings, and estimates, please access our client research portal.
We’ve held the view for a few years now that we are experiencing a generational shift in investment patterns brought on by the supply disruptions caused during COVID, geopolitical tensions and government stimulus. It was a generation ago that the group enjoyed above average organic growth on the investment boom in China and other EMs. Now the tide of global investment is shifting and will not be easily reversed.
We now see a generational shift that benefits the USA more strongly but is also global as sovereignty of critical infrastructure and supply remains a national focus, internationally. While concerns of impending recession have hung over the market for at least 2 years, we believe we are early in what could be an extended period of Industrial re-investment and repositioning. Although our view never meant we would go up in a straight line, the Fed’s pivot in December substantially lowers the risk of a cyclical hard landing interrupting the secular take-off.
In fact, if our organic growth estimates for 2024 prove correct, it might be more proper to call it a no landing scenario rather than a soft landing.
